Demography

Historically, Cuba has been a country of immigrants. In 1841 there were about one million inhabitants. The population grew due to increased sugar production and importation of slaves. By the late nineteenth century declined due to the wars of independence, epidemics and hunger.

With the founding of the Republic in 1902, and to 1930, demographic indicators demographic. In this period increases life expectancy at birth of 33,2 years 1899 a 41,4 years 1930, there was an immigration of 1,3 million, mostly men. The U.S. investment in that period created jobs and provoked the increase of revenues.

After the First World War, sugar prices fell and the economy stagnated. Beginning a period of Cuban population migration. From 1934 accelerates the reduction of infant mortality to the torque of a declining birth.

From the end of World War II, is an increase in life expectancy at birth thanks to advances in medicine. In the period 1950 – 1955 the mortality rate was 11 deaths per thousand inhabitants, (this rate was 20,3 the period 1930 – 1934)

In 1959, there was an increase in migration to Cuba, and then have a negative balance in each of the years and to the present. During this period reduced the infant mortality rate to 4,6 per thousand live births and life expectancy increased to the 77 years old, although these indicators are also global trends.

In the decade of 60 existed in Cuba a demographic boom, but from 1978 the fertility rate is below the level, there is a systematic decrease in the number of births. This is the root cause of the stagnation in the growth of the number of inhabitants on the island (Since 2005 the annual rate of population growth varies over 0%).

tasas de la poblacion cubana

I have started a process of population decline on the island at the same accelerated aging.

Current Situation

Demographic statistics are a reflection of the socioeconomic conditions of the country. From 1959, The Cuban government has sought to improve the living conditions of the poorest population. A early 60 improved the situation of many families; were resolved problems that existed before 1959. We conducted a literacy campaign to peasants who could not read or write, also extended and guaranteed access to the public health system to many people.

Simultaneously, began a process of destruction of the foundations of the economy, of all private enterprise running efficiently and all existing market mechanisms so far.

He also began a process of organizational change and territorial 1976 increased the number of provinces (of 6 provincias a 14, plus the special municipality of Isla de la Juventud), and sought to create "a new man", through the denial of the habits, manners, traditions, and values ​​that exist in society.

The increased level of life until 1989 was achieved by Soviet subsidies and other socialist countries buying of sugar above the market price, they sold oil at very low price; and the Cuban government allowed him resale currency of untapped oil share. He was offered the Cuban government loans and non-repayable grants. Also, the government obtained loans from Paris Club has never been returned. This led to the destruction of the work culture and the elimination of the belief that you can improve the level of individual lives and the nation through the work.

Following the implementation of these policies, living standards began to deteriorate (process that occurred in all socialist countries; in Cuba from 1990). Cuba did not take the aid received to establish sound economic fundamentals and based on these to ensure sustainable development of the nation.

The deterioration in the standard of living is manifested in 4 fundamental aspects:

  • Male Mortality, especially in the group of 30 a 40 years old.
  • Low incomes and lack of use of leisure time and a healthy lifestyle.
  • Existie very little supply of consumer goods, the state promotes the sale of alcohol and cigarettes, which leads to the deterioration of the health of individuals in the long term.
  • Serious environmental degradation.

As living standards deteriorate, increases the perception of insecurity and lack of confidence in the future. Bringing result in , people stop long-term responsibilities. They stop marriages, divorces increase, fertility declines, do not build or buy houses and decide to emigrate as soon have the opportunity.

Additionally, in the case of Cuba there are several serious problems:

  • The youth apathy await their fate sadly while trying to emigrate. Also, do not recognize any authority that respect and they serve as an example, not try to change anything in society, only see emigration as a way to improve their standard of living.
  • The jobs that offer more economic prosperity are those that require less effort and knowledge. The benefits are not obtained by the work done, but by their own employer scam, habit very difficult to eradicate. There is no motivation to innovate, increase the competitiveness of companies.
  • Family Separation: the 18% of Cubans living abroad. Besides the migration of people, the Cuban government charges exorbitant fees for documents, passages and all telephone communications and mailing, and prevents access to the Internet. The Cuban government imposes arbitrary restrictions to the return and contact between people just to practice a certain profession or for expressing views critical of the government.
  • Besides emigration, the government has promoted policies that have the additional cost the same consequences (sending hundreds of thousands of men to wars in other countries, separation of children to study and work outside the home, in schools to field calls, sending hundreds of thousands of medical professionals and especially to work in other countries). The destruction of family hierarchies have eroded the traditions and codes of ethics of the young, distorted the normal operating mode of the family.
  • The deterioration of infrastructure and especially the poor state and the housing shortage, overcrowding and lack of privacy that are the main cause of domestic violence.

Most important demographic indicators.

The island's population has peaked, starts to decrease and the census 2012 (11,163 million) shows that the population is less than the most pessimistic alternative forecasts. It is forecast that the population in the 2025 either 8,6 million. Source ONE

numero y tacThere is a gradual increase in deaths while the number of births decreases systematically Source ONE tasas de natalidad y mortalidadThe Cuban population in the outer reaches of 18% and tends to increase. The 90% of the population living abroad live in the U.S.. Source ONE, US Census, INE. cubanos en el mundoThere is an accelerated aging, since 2000 the Cuban population is the oldest in Latin America and in 2025 be one of the world's ten most aged. The population 60 years and reach a minimum 30% the total poblaión. Source ONE pobl por grupo de edadesThe level of fertility below replacement level since 1978. The lowest in Latin America. A high level of abortions, and the number of births has to decrease. The 10,2% of Cuban children born in the United States. Source ONE tasas de fecundiaddThe working age population represents the 59,3% Total population (according to the census of 2002) and is reduced to a rate of 53,2% on 2025. Source ONE pobl en edad lab y econ activaThe economically active population (PEA) is 49,8% Total population (census 2002) The PEA also undergoes an aging process and lack of replacement. From 2025 the decline will be even more acute. In 1970 Gross number of working years reached 43,5 years and the 2002 descended to 36,3 years old. Source ONE pronosticos 2030 pecThe infant mortality rate is the second lowest in Latin America (after Chile) with a value of 4,6 deaths per thousand live births (five-year average as calculated by ECLAC). Source ONE, ECLAC defunciones perinatales y infantil 1979 2011 Life expectancy reaches 77,97 years old. For men it 76,00 and 80,02 for women. Source ONE The median age of the population is 39 years old (given the 2011, 38,2 for men, and 39,9 for women). The Cuban population in the U.S., reaches 40 age (given the 2010). Source UN Population Revised 2010. edad mediana cuba 1950 2025

  1. From 1960, external migration rate is negative in each of the years. This process is the result of a steady decline in living standards. The Cuban government has for many years imposed severe restrictions on the entry and exit of the country which has resulted in the separation of many families. Source ONE

migracion desde cuba por sexo 1960 2010

Demographic forecasts for the year 2030 Cuba has reached a level of life expectancy and mortality rate reduction, especially the level of infant mortality compared to more developed countries, but the Cuban population has lived with severe material constraints as well and a great lack of individual freedoms too long. Cuba faces big challenges to have an economic system obsolete and inefficient.

  • The population 60 and over, increase from a 18,3% up 30,8% on 2030.

ee2010 2030

  • In this same period, the population under 14 years is reduced from 17,2% in the present 13,8% on 2030.
  • The working age population will decrease from 6,8 million will be reduced to 6,37 million in 2030.
  • On 2012 the economically active population is 5,17 million, and the employed population is 5,01 million, but there is a surplus of at least 1,5 million workers in the state sector. La ONE(National Bureau of Statistics) estimated that the economically active population range between 4,65 and 4,86 million for the 2025. Source ONE

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  • The deterioration of the relationship between the number of people of working age and non-productive (particularly the increase in the proportion of people leaving the labor market) creates an untenable situation for the Cuban economy. This problem must be added the challenge of turning off the Cuban economy with respect to the global economy, including digital exclusion and access and mastery of advanced technologies.
  • The increasing number of older people who require specialist medical care, to be guaranteed a pension that guarantees your needs, solutions are found so they can use their free time. Older people 80 years also require nursing staff for their care and help with daily tasks. Source ONE

pronosticos 60 y mas

Challenges

In this situation the following questions arise:

What changes must be made in the economy to maintain a population structure increasingly unfavorable, with a reduced capacity, not to further worsen the living standards of the elderly?

How should education systems change, health, social security and labor laws to meet this challenge?

• What influence will the shortage and poor quality of food on the health of the population in a medium-term future?

• How do the elders used free time?

• How the health system will face increasing complex diseases (tumors and cancers) among adults?

How to face the challenge of a high number of elderly living alone?

What structural solutions should be introduced to facilitate the lives of women, so that they want to have children and to increase fertility?

How family policies are structured to be a downward trend in the number of births within marriage?

Given the high rate of divorce, should be a fairly low number of children living with both parents, How do you face this challenge, especially if one parent has migrated?

How to reduce the risk of death among the leading causes of death, and especially by accidents?

How to solve local problems, as extreme aging in certain cities of the island?, Havana eg where there is a rapid external emigration, there is a high population density, and destroyed infrastructure.